World Cup Simulator

This is a probabilistic simulator for the upcoming soccer World Cup. It applies different rules to rate the strength of the teams and to calculate a team's chance to win in a match.
Repeating the simulation of the tournament multiple times results in a probability distribution, that shows how likely a team is to advance to the finals.

Probability of winning the World Cup

    Betting Odds

    Soccer Power Index

    Elo Ranking

    FIFA World Ranking

    Market Value

    Probabilities and odds are updated during the World Cup. Home advantage has been included in the respective calculations. The betting odds are an average across multiple Internet sites.

    What to do?

    After clicking the Play World Cup button below, do the following:

    Select Rules
    Select weights for the rules (or use the default values).
    The rule weights determine how much your simulation will be influenced by the different rating methods.
    Start the tournament
    Click the Start Tournament button and 10000 simulations of the World Cup will be run. The probability of winning will be computed for every team.
    This World Cup simulator was developed at Freie Universität Berlin in the Artificial Intelligence Group.